[kathrynhr]

What if Healthier People Cost Us More Money? - The Best Life (usnews.com)

I wonder if our nation's anti-smoking initiatives will slowly start disappearing:

Common sense might argue that less smoking would reduce government spending and obesity would increase it. Wrong. Both trends cause higher government outlays, the researchers found. In fact, from a purely fiscal standpoint, they concluded, a truly cost-effective policy would be to help people to lose weight—by taking up smoking!

<snip>

Obesity does lead to shorter life spans, and this reduces Social Security and other old-age entitlement benefits. However, obese people get really sick before they die, and these higher medical expenses exceed reduced government benefit outlays. Smoking cutbacks, on the other hand, extend lives and reduce sickness. But it turns out that smokers tend to get really sick in a short period right before they die, so the medical expenses of treating them aren't as high as you'd think. Reducing smoking, then, doesn't save so many healthcare dollars, but those extended life spans really jack up Social Security and entitlement spending.

[DaBlackberryBoy]

My eyesight is starting to go! ;) I think I need some help! HAHA

[daphne]

I really question what that article says. I'd have to see some hard facts and numbers to buy that. Smoking increases the risk of heart disease, reduces circulation, constricts blood vessels, raises blood pressure, increases the heart rate, not to mention all the nasty things it does to the lungs. There are plenty of obese smokers too. Maybe the tobacco companies paid for that study. Smokers pay a lot in taxes for cigarettes, that's the benefit to the government.

[djm2]

Part of this issue revolves around the fact that a huge percentage of total lifetime health care costs are spent in the last 30 days of life, regardless of your health condition prior to that time. While I have not read the article that was linked, the total cost function for the last 30 days (I think that it is 30%-40% of ALL Medicare spending) is something that we have known since the mid-70s. I suspect that someone just went in and did a total systems analysis of the costs including the costs of Social Security. I remember discussing this with colleagues back in the early 90s and hypothesizing that it would likely be true.

As for termination of the anti-smoking programs, my suspicion is that this will not happen simply because of other social values. And, I doubt that the tobacco companies paid for it -- note the comments about pre-mature deaths leading to huge savings in the Social Security trust fund -- something that I doubt that ig Tobacco wants to see published.